The forecast given for today was mostly accurate. Some of the notable items that were not represented well were:
- Top of lift started out as predicted over launch (16-18k) but we never saw 17k again during the afternoon. Cloud base, however, did appear to be 18k or more.
- Winds aloft from 12k to 18k were not as strong of a southerly push. Somewhere in the 3-5 mph neighborhood, not 10 mph.
- Winds below 10k were from the NNW around 5-8 mph which made progress on the lower terrain difficult.
- The monsoonal surge was very noticeable to the south, but no overdevelopment occurred and clouds stayed very shallow.
What was forecasted well?
- East winds at launch were present as predicted. They turned W around solar noon as expected. Winds were light on launch.
- NNW flow on the valley floor to the north was well represented in the forecast.
- Top of lift was for 16-18k over the high terrain. On average is was likely 16.5k.
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