Weather Outlook for July 27-30

The general weather outlook for July 27-30 in the Richfield.

**An important update to read describing the general pattern for the rest of the comp **

First the notes from the SLC NWS:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
340 am MDT Wednesday Jul 27 2011

Synopsis...lingering moisture will remain in place through the
remainder of the week. A very moist airmass is expected to spread
back into Utah during the upcoming weekend through early next
week.

CG - A line of severe thunderstorms is moving slowly to the NE from southwest desert near Delta. This line may clip the Richfield area later tonight. There is still a 50% change of precip this evening so expect some rainfall in the area, but we may stay clear of the larger cells.

The next few days are interesting. First to note is that current models indicate moderate precipitable water. In simple terms this relates to how much moisture is available over a given region which, if squeezed out of the air, would produce some amount of precip. In this case, models suggest .75 inches over the next several days, and then a surge again over the next weekend. So with this in place and strong surface heating in the morning and early afternoons, we can expect to see thunderstorms in the late afternoon around the region.

The location of these TS will likely build over the high terrain, but as we can see, nearly every direction is high terrain in the area. It will be critical for efficient mobilization from the organization to be positioned to use the safest window for each of the upcoming days. Now to the generic statements...

Over Development & Precip

A chance of rain in the early morning as nocturnal/evening TS move through the southern portion of the state. A drier air mass is expected to move in from the west, bringing with it a light westerly flow by mid Wed. This pattern will persist from Wed morning though friday night. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Thursday and into Fri. Our area is on the edge of this feature so definitely forecasting a reasonable TS percentage is difficult at best. We can only hope that this moisture is pushed to the east.

When/if deep convective cells form over the next few afternoons, we can expect quick development and violent gust fronts associated with them. It only takes one gust front many miles down the valley to quickly race through our region. Pay attention to this.

Winds 11 AM

Height	Direction	Speed	Notes as the day evolves
Surface	SW	5 mph	SW throughout the San Pete valley
9000 ft	NW	0-5 mph	Same throughout the day
12000 ft	WNW	0-5 mph	"
15000 ft	WSW	8-12 mph	"
18000 ft	WSW	20 mph

Although a true west wind is favorable for the Monroe Peak launch area, it is unclear if a direct west flow will lean toward "blowing out" launch early, even if it is light. Local pilots may be able to comment on this one.

Lift Potential & Clouds

• Cumulus clouds: widespread, bases from 14k up to 18k as the day evolves and deep cumulus develop.
  
• Top of lift: estimated at around 14,000 to 15,000 ft over the higher terrain, with valley climbs up to 12-13k.
• Cloud cover: cumulus with widespread mid stratus are likely for the morning, with mid level clouds drying out later in the day.
  

Even with a drier air mass aloft, the surface has retained tremendous moisture over the last 2 days and will contribute to deep cumulus development as well.

XC Skies 3 day Trends

Legend:

Red - Top of usable lift (1.2 m/s) Black - Thermal tops (TI~0)

White - Thermal top sensitivity(+2°C) Pink - Cu CCL (dew pt.)