Come on WX. Would you throw us a bone here!?
First the notes from the SLC NWS:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
328 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 27 2011
Synopsis...lingering moisture will remain in place through the
remainder of the week. A very moist airmass is expected to spread
back into Utah during the upcoming weekend through early next
week.
CG - NWS has updated the probability of thunderstorms over Thursday and Friday with a gradual increase of definite TS by the weekend. This is in part due to very high surface moisture as well as moist air aloft that has been stubborn to move out of the region. Water vapor imagery still shows a dry area jetting through central Utah just north of our area. This is only providing "dry lines" around the area that may be contributing to the violent development of TS today.
Thursday: Moisture is still forecasted to decrease in the region, which would technically reduce the threat of TS for the early afternoon. However, the surface moisture trapped within the boundary layer is proving to be sufficient enough to ignite TS over more than just the high terrain. The outlook for Thursday soaring is better than Wed "on paper" but I am still skeptical at the current NWS assessment.
Friday: Models (GFS and NAM) hint at monsoonal moisture returning by evening with considerable higher precipital water values. If the timing of this happens Sat will almost certainly not be a viable candidate for a tasl. Winds will stay light, both surface and aloft, being mostly l and v.
Saturday: monsoonal moisture makes a whopping surge into the area as a southerly flow pulls the airmass south of us into our area. This will lead to large TS events and widespread rain.
The above is objective as I can be... Now for the details of Thursday.
Over Development & Precip
As stated a drier air mass is still expected to move in from the west, bringing with it a light westerly flow in the morning with light and variable winds throughout the afternoon. With a bumped 20% probability of precip and TS for the late afternoon, wx events will impact soaring conditions. Again it is the timing of vertical development that will dictate how well a task can be executed.
When/if deep convective cells form over the next few afternoons, we can expect quick development and violent gust fronts associated with them. It only takes one gust front many miles down the valley to quickly race through our region. Pay attention to this.
Winds 11 AM
| Height | Direction | Speed | Notes as the day evolves |
| Surface | NW | 5 mph | |
| 9000 ft | NW | 0-5 mph | Same throughout the day |
| 12000 ft | NW | 0-5 mph | " |
| 15000 ft | W | 5 mph | " |
| 18000 ft | WSW | 10 mph | " |
Light and variable winds have proven to yield east winds at launch. We may see this as well on Thursday.
Lift Potential & Clouds
- Cumulus clouds: widespread, bases from 16k up to 18k as the day evolves and deep cumulus develop.
- Top of lift: estimated at around 16,000 to 17,000 ft over the higher terrain, with valley climbs up to 13k mid day.
- Cloud cover: small cumulus with sunny conditions are likely for the morning, with mid level clouds and or high moving in later in the afternoon.
XC Skies 3 day Trends
| Legend |  | Red - Top of usable lift (1.2 m/s) Black - Thermal tops (TI~0) | White - Thermal top sensitivity(+2°C) Pink - Cu CCL (dew pt.) |
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