Weather Outlook for July 25

The general weather outlook for July 25 in the Richfield.

Update: July 25, 8:30 AM -CG

Northern frontal passage from Pacific NW is advecting moisture into Utah faster than expected. This is bringing more moisture at the mid levels. With this insolation and increasing isothermic profiles, overdevelopment may not be as wide spread. Yet, with light winds and precipitable water at .75 to 1.0 inches, when it does rain, areal flooding could occur.

Thoughts: lift could be workable and weak early afternoon, but cloud cover would "hide" any large convective activity resulting in surprises. Light rain is likely throughout the area, but not heavy until later this evening. Chance of getting a task in today is possible, but without being able to assess the conditions accurately from below the mid level scud, there are risks involved.

From NWS 9PM
Synopsis...high pressure aloft centered over the southern rockies
through the Southern Plains will feed moisture northward across
the region through Tuesday. A Pacific trough racing east across
the northern rockies Tuesday will bring somewhat drier and more
stable air to mainly northern Utah midweek.

Over Development & Precip

A very good chance of deep convection and widespread afternoon thunderstorms w/ precip will hit the area Monday. NWS is calling for 30% chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon through the evening, and into Tuesday. With a drier air mass approaching from the NW there is a good chance that thunderstorms will be scattered and not widespread for the southern areas near Richfield come Wed. The further north, the drier. The surge tomorrow will carry significant moisture, with an almost certainty of precip reaching the ground. Note the XC Skies 3 day relative humidity plot to see the saturated upper levels.

Winds 11 AM

Height	Direction	Speed	Notes as the day evolves
Surface	S	lv	SSW throughout the San Pete valley
9000 ft	lv	lv	Shifting light WSW later in the day
12000 ft	S	3-5 mph	Shifting light WSW later in the day
15000 ft	SSW	10-13 mph	Shifting 7-8 mph SSW later
18000 ft	SSW	22-26 mph	Trending lighter later in the day (12-18 mph)

light and variable winds at launch with with light SSE until the day heats up, where the west flow will develop as yesterday did, primarily driven by upslope flow. With upper level winds at 18k in over 20mph expect some downward mixing to occur. This strong wind aloft will bring the moisture with it. Expect to find wind near ridge tops variable and erratic while valley wind will likely help the upper flow move in the normal diurnal directions.

Lift Potential & Clouds

• Cumulus clouds: widespread, bases from 14k up to 18k as the day starts to overdevelop.
  
• Top of lift: estimated at around 14,000 to 16,000 ft over the higher terrain, with valley climbs up to 12-13k.
• Cloud cover: cumulus with widespread mid and upper level stratus and cirrus. This moisture will allow convective clouds to tap into additional moisture which will drive TS.
  

XC Skies 3 day Trends